The Traders Brief Options Snapshot
Monday, July 20, 2026 (03:00 PM)
Henry Hub Natural Gas (NG)
Expiration: 2026-07-28 (8 Days)
Strike Analysis Range: $2.574 to $3.146 ($2.860 ±10%)

A. Volatility Analysis & Market Expectations
  * ATM Implied Volatility: 47.6%
  * Today's Realized Range: $0.080
  * Normal 1-Day Range (1 SD): ±$0.070
  * Realized vs. Normal: 55%
  * 3-Day Realized Range: $0.150
  * Normal 3-Day Range: ±$0.120
  * Realized vs. Normal: 59%
  * Expected Move (1 SD): ±$0.200 (range $2.660 to $3.060)

B. Options - All Open Interest
  * Puts Control the Chain by a Ratio of: 5.4 to 1
  * Total Open Interest: Calls 23,416 | Puts 126,023
  * Average Strike: Calls 2.970 | Puts 2.850
  * Average Strike for All Calls & Puts - 2.870
  * Heavy Call Strikes - 12,721 @ 3.000 | 3,858 @ 3.050 | 2,368 @ 2.900
  * Heavy Put Strikes - 34,142 @ 2.750 | 32,927 @ 3.000 | 13,285 @ 2.600
  * Heavy Combined Strikes - 45,648 @ 3.000 | 35,037 @ 2.750 | 13,557 @ 2.850

C. Options - Traded Today
  * Puts Lead Volume by a ratio of 1.8 to 1
  * Today's Volume: Calls 9,388 | Puts 16,697
  * Average Strike Traded Today: Calls 2.970 | Puts 2.790
  * Average Strike - Combined Traded Today - 2.860
  * Heavy Call Strikes Today - 4,025 @ 3.000 | 1,286 @ 3.050 | 1,199 @ 2.850
  * Heavy Put Strikes Today - 6,773 @ 2.750 | 2,680 @ 2.800 | 2,646 @ 2.850

D. Summary - What Matters Most
  * Bulls Need Price Above > 2.970, Bears Need Price Below < 2.850
  * Battle Zone Strikes: 2.850 to 2.970. Chain Average Strike - All Options - 2.870.
  * Currently in the Money: All Calls 10% | All Puts 41%
  * Who Controls the Strikes?: Bulls (calls) 2 | Bears (puts) 9 (of 11 total)
  * Max Pain @ 3.000 destroys the greatest amount of premium ($1,909 intrinsic value)
  ** Max Pain - 3.000 | Break Above=Bullish | Break Below=Bearish
  ** Bull-Bear Line - All Open Interest - 2.870 | Break Above=Bullish | Break Below=Bearish
  ** Bull-Bear Line - Today's Options - 2.860 | Break Above=Bullish | Break Below=Bearish

E. Thesis - Bulls / Bears / Watch
  Bulls
  * Heavy put concentration at 2.75 (-33,247 net) creates strong gamma support zone
  * 3.00 strike shows large put OI (32,927) that could stabilize downside moves
  * Warmer weather pattern forecast through July 28 may lift cooling demand
  Bears
  * Price trades below major moving averages with storage 180+ Bcf above average
  * Resistance wall from 3.20-3.40 shows 25,877 net call premium above market
  * Freeport LNG offline and renewables eroding power sector gas demand
  Watch: The 2.75-3.00 zone is critical, with 53,453 net put support below spot versus stacked call resistance above 3.20.

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