The Traders Brief©
Options Snapshot©
as of 15:00 ET · live · ● live-ready
Natural Gas Options
NG · CLASS LNE · EXP 2026-09-25
Spot
$2.89
H 2.96L 2.86
▲ +0.00 (+0.10%)
as of 14:39 EST
2.86
2.96 Day Range
ATM Implied Vol
45.0%
▼ falling from 46.2%
OI Control
Puts 1.3×
puts control the chain
Realized vs Normal
70%
within IV expectations
Summary Pivots
Max Pain
$3.00
destroys most premium
All-OI Equilibrium
$2.88
OI-weighted center
Today's Equilibrium
$2.91
volume-weighted center
What Matters Mostas of 14:06 EST
Bulls
Dense support zone 2.50–2.75 holds net -114k contracts, largest gamma cushion
Call sellers dominate upside 3.15–3.35, capping rallies but showing no aggressive put hedging
Winter strip pricing near $3.90 maintains structural backwardation into heating season
Bears
Price trapped between 2.75 support floor and 3.15+ call resistance walls totaling 30k+ OI
Storage surplus 118 Bcf above five-year average weakens seasonal injection tailwinds
Warm 6-10 day weather outlook delays shoulder-season demand pivot through expiration cycle
Watch — The 2.75 strike anchors support with net -23,317 contracts; break below activates deeper gamma at 2.60 and 2.50 where 54k net puts cluster.
Key Levels
$3.35RESISTCall OI wall above price — resistance4,184
$3.25RESISTCall OI wall above price — resistance24,985
$3.20RESISTCall OI wall above price — resistance6,731
$3.15RESISTCall OI wall above price — resistance6,598
$3.10RESISTCall OI wall above price — resistance7,734
$2.75SUP·GAMMAPut OI wall below price — support · dealer hedging accelerates here36,176
$2.65SUP·GAMMAPut OI wall below price — support · dealer hedging accelerates here13,678
$2.60SUP·GAMMAPut OI wall below price — support · dealer hedging accelerates here24,351
$2.50SUP·GAMMAPut OI wall below price — support · dealer hedging accelerates here59,299
$2.40SUP·GAMMAPut OI wall below price — support · dealer hedging accelerates here12,542
All Open Interest
Puts Control the Chain 1.3 : 1
Total Open Interest Calls 88,693 | Puts 119,306
Average Strike Calls 2.95 | Puts 2.83
Avg Strike — All 2.88
In-the-MoneyCalls 27.8% | Puts 36.9%
Strike Control7 Call-Led | 5 Put-Led of 12
Heavy Call Strikes
33,998 @ 312,859 @ 2.757,734 @ 3.1
Heavy Put Strikes
36,176 @ 2.7530,528 @ 313,678 @ 2.65
Heavy Combined Strikes
64,526 @ 349,035 @ 2.7513,764 @ 2.65
Traded Today
Calls Control Today's Flow 1.6 : 1
Total Volume Calls 19,538 | Puts 12,010
Average Strike Calls 2.99 | Puts 2.78
Avg Strike — All 2.91
Heavy Call Strikes (today)
8,837 @ 33,862 @ 3.052,098 @ 2.9
Heavy Put Strikes (today)
4,921 @ 2.751,660 @ 2.81,634 @ 2.9
Heavy Combined Strikes (today)
9,089 @ 35,462 @ 2.753,951 @ 3.05
OI Magnets
LNE 20260925 · 8 DTE · spot $2.89 · bar = open interest
OI MAGNET
$3.00
OI 64,526 · +0.11 to spot
PutStrikeCall
996
3.15
6,598
29
3.13
1,228
3,157
3.1
7,734
827
3.05
4,066
30,528
3
33,998
2,008
2.95
3,442
6,435
2.9
7,005
6,780
2.85
6,502
8,587
2.8
4,069
36,176
2.75
12,859
10,105
2.7
1,106
13,678
2.65
86
Volatility & Market Expectations
ATM Implied Volatility45.0%
IV vs 20-day average▼ falling (was 46.2%)
Expected move (to expiry, ±1σ)±$0.19 ($2.70 – $3.09)
Implied Volatility Curve
Today Yesterday 1 Week Ago
NET OI (contracts) · calls ▲ / puts ▼ −23,317 45%50%55%60%65% 2.402.602.803.003.203.40 ATM 2.894 VOLATILITY (ANNUAL %) STRIKE
Realized vs Normal Range
Normal 1-Day (±1σ)±$0.07
Normal 3-Day±$0.12
1-Day Realized$0.10
3-Day Realized$0.11
Realized vs Normal (1D)70%
Realized vs Normal (3D)48%
What the Vol Is Telling Us

Modest premium pricing reflects range-bound uncertainty ahead of storage data, with implied volatility contained by heavy call selling above 3.15 and put selling below 2.75. The skew favors downside protection as traders position for weather-driven cooling demand fade, though realized volatility remains muted in the 15-cent recent range. Gamma concentration at 2.50–2.75 suggests dealers will resist downside breaks, while the 3.25 strike's 25k call open interest marks the ceiling until fundamentals shift.

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