The Traders Brief©
Options Snapshot©
as of 15:00 ET · live · ● live-ready
Natural Gas Options
· CLASS LNE · EXP 2026-07-28
Spot
$2.86
H 2.91L 2.83
▼ -0.05 (-1.72%)
as of 14:32 EST
2.83
2.91 Day Range
ATM Implied Vol
47.6%
▲ rising from 44.2%
OI Control
Puts 5.4×
puts control the chain
Realized vs Normal
55%
within IV expectations
Summary Pivots
Max Pain
$3.00
destroys most premium
All-OI Equilibrium
$2.87
OI-weighted center
Today's Equilibrium
$2.86
volume-weighted center
What Matters Most
Bulls
Heavy put concentration at 2.75 (-33,247 net) creates strong gamma support zone
3.00 strike shows large put OI (32,927) that could stabilize downside moves
Warmer weather pattern forecast through July 28 may lift cooling demand
Bears
Price trades below major moving averages with storage 180+ Bcf above average
Resistance wall from 3.20-3.40 shows 25,877 net call premium above market
Freeport LNG offline and renewables eroding power sector gas demand
Watch — The 2.75-3.00 zone is critical, with 53,453 net put support below spot versus stacked call resistance above 3.20.
Key Levels
$3.40RESISTCall OI wall above price — resistance5,190
$3.30RESISTCall OI wall above price — resistance4,973
$3.25RESISTCall OI wall above price — resistance27,328
$3.20RESISTCall OI wall above price — resistance8,327
$3.00MAGNETNet-OI magnet — gamma pivot · dealer hedging accelerates here32,927
$2.90RESISTCall OI wall above price — resistance2,368
$2.85SUP·GAMMAPut OI wall below price — support · dealer hedging accelerates here12,852
$2.80SUPPORTPut OI wall below price — support8,300
$2.75SUP·GAMMAPut OI wall below price — support · dealer hedging accelerates here34,142
$2.60SUP·GAMMAPut OI wall below price — support · dealer hedging accelerates here13,285
$2.50SUP·GAMMAPut OI wall below price — support · dealer hedging accelerates here28,967
All Open Interest
Puts Control the Chain 5.4 : 1
Total Open Interest Calls 23,416 | Puts 126,023
Average Strike Calls 2.97 | Puts 2.85
Avg Strike — All 2.87
In-the-MoneyCalls 10.1% | Puts 41.3%
Strike Control2 Call-Led | 9 Put-Led of 11
Heavy Call Strikes
12,721 @ 33,858 @ 3.052,368 @ 2.9
Heavy Put Strikes
34,142 @ 2.7532,927 @ 313,285 @ 2.6
Heavy Combined Strikes
45,648 @ 335,037 @ 2.7513,557 @ 2.85
Traded Today
Puts Control Today's Flow 1.8 : 1
Total Volume Calls 9,388 | Puts 16,697
Average Strike Calls 2.97 | Puts 2.79
Avg Strike — All 2.86
Heavy Call Strikes (today)
4,025 @ 31,286 @ 3.051,199 @ 2.85
Heavy Put Strikes (today)
6,773 @ 2.752,680 @ 2.82,646 @ 2.85
Heavy Combined Strikes (today)
6,869 @ 2.754,358 @ 33,845 @ 2.85
OI Magnets
LNE 20260728 · 8 DTE · spot $2.86 · bar = open interest
OI MAGNET
$3.00
OI 45,648 · +0.14 to spot
PutStrikeCall
8,289
3.1
0
4,729
3.05
3,858
32,927
3
12,721
6,052
2.95
2,110
0
2.9
2,368
12,852
2.85
705
8,300
2.8
639
34,142
2.75
895
0
2.7
13
5,447
2.65
51
13,285
2.6
56
Volatility & Market Expectations
ATM Implied Volatility47.6%
IV vs 20-day average▲ rising (was 44.2%)
Expected move (to expiry, ±1σ)±$0.20 ($2.66 – $3.06)
Implied Volatility Curve
Today Yesterday 1 Week Ago
NET OI (contracts) · calls ▲ / puts ▼ −33,247 45%50%55%60%65% 2.402.602.803.003.203.40 ATM 2.861 VOLATILITY (ANNUAL %) STRIKE
Realized vs Normal Range
Normal 1-Day (±1σ)±$0.07
Normal 3-Day±$0.12
1-Day Realized$0.08
3-Day Realized$0.15
Realized vs Normal (1D)55%
Realized vs Normal (3D)59%
What the Vol Is Telling Us

The options structure is heavily put-skewed below spot, with 2.75 and 3.00 strikes holding 67,389 combined put OI that suggests hedging into storage season. Gamma concentration at 2.75 (-33,247 net) and 3.00 (-20,206 net) implies dealers are short puts and would buy futures on weakness, creating potential floor stabilization. Today's 2.83-2.91 realized range tested both the 2.85 support and approached topside resistance, but implied skew favors downside protection given bearish fundamentals and constrained export capacity.

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